Another World Cup semi-final, but are shot-shy Croatia actually any good?

June 13, 2024

It’s difficult to find anyone — aside perhaps from those in neighbouring countries — who have anything other than the utmost respect for Croatia as a football nation. Their debut World Cup as an independent country was only in 1998, and yet in those seven tournaments they’ve reached the semi-finals three times.

It’s remarkable for a country with a population of under four million (half that of London), and all the more remarkable considering Croatia have always been intent on playing positive, possession-based football, with a midfield based around playmakers rather than destroyers.

Yet it’s still legitimate to ask a question which might seem, considering their results in the 2018 and now 2022 World Cups, unduly harsh: are Croatia actually any good?

In their six knockout matches at those two tournaments, Croatia’s record reads: draw, draw, won by one goal after extra time, loss, draw, draw. Of course, all four of those drawn matches have subsequently been won on penalty shootouts. Croatia’s trump card is constantly finding a way to progress, despite seldom winning a tie in 90 minutes.

Maybe a more reasonable question is whether Croatia are better or worse today than that side which lost the final to France four years ago.

In goal, Dominik Livakovic is enjoying an outstanding tournament in terms of shot-stopping, but he seems somewhat nervous with the ball at his feet.

Defensively, the emergence of Josko Gvardiol has provided Croatia with more speed and ball-playing ability, as well as another very solid defender. Current left-back Borna Sosa offers considerably more going forward than his counterpart in Russia, Ivan Strinic, and while Josip Juranovic wouldn’t have been considered an equal of the 2018 version of Sime Vrsaljko on the eve of this tournament, he was probably Croatia’s best player in the quarter-final against Brazil on Friday, handling Vinicius Junior excellently, while also flying forward into attack.

Their midfield in Qatar is very similar to the 2018 one, in terms of personnel, style and quality. Luka Modric can’t always last the distance in matches now he’s 37, but remains as influential as ever in terms of controlling the game.

GO DEEPER

Croatia beat Brazil – Penalties, Neymar's moment of genius and Gvardiol's defence

Where this Croatia team are obviously weaker, however, is in attack.

Ivan Perisic remains a threat on the run, and when attacking the ball at the far post, but Croatia lack quality in two positions: up front, and on the right. In particular, they offer no speed in behind, which feels like a waste ahead of probably the most technically gifted midfield remaining in the competition.

In the other nine positions, coach Zlatko Dalic knows his best side and has remained unchanged, with one exception: Sosa missed the round of 16 tie against Japan because of illness, with Borna Barisic coming in.

But then, Dalic doesn’t quite know what to do in the remaining two positions — it’s essentially an expanded version of one of those classic World Cup tactical conundrums, when the only question concerns what’s happening in attack.

Four years ago, Croatia had Mario Mandzukic leading the line and Ante Rebic wide right. Mandzukic has now retired — now 36, he is on Croatia’s coaching staff at this tournament — while Rebic was omitted from the 26-strong squad after falling out with Dalic. In the final third, Croatia clearly pack less of a punch than in 2018.

Here’s how Dalic has attempted to solve that attacking problem.

Croatia’s first game of the World Cup, a boring goalless draw with a Morocco side who have ended up joining them in the semi-finals, demonstrated their problems concisely. The back four, central midfield and Perisic combined well, but centre-forward Andrej Kramaric was barely involved (no shots, one touch in the Morocco box, substituted after 71 minutes), while right-winger Nikola Vlasic moved inside to open up space for Juranovic, but didn’t look entirely comfortable in that role.

Things looked better in the second group game against Canada four days later — indeed, this is the only match Croatia have flat-out won at Qatar 2022 thus far.

Kramaric played from the right this time, with Marko Livaja — who boasts a brilliant scoring record in the Croatian top flight over the last 18 months — dropping deep to link play well. Kramaric scored two of their four goals and could have had more, while Livaja thumped home the second from the edge of the box to take the lead just before half-time. Croatia were in business.

Therefore, against Belgium in the group finale, Dalic kept the same approach in attack.

This one was a little hard to analyse — Croatia carried little attacking threat, but were also happy with another nil-nil, which sent them through as Group F runners-up. Of course, being happy with a draw has become their default approach.

For the last-16 meeting with Japan, Dalic changed things.

Kramaric was again used from the right, with Bruno Petkovic the one playing through the centre this time, and not overwhelmingly involved (24 touches, three in the Japan box, replaced after 62 minutes). The chart below shows Perisic was highest up the pitch by average position, which concisely summarised how he offered the greatest attacking threat, as demonstrated by his outstanding headed goal to make it 1-1.

And then came the meeting with Brazil, where there was yet another approach — Kramaric was back leading the line, with Mario Pasalic tucked inside from a right-sided position.

Although he wasn’t particularly incisive in attack, Pasalic actually played this role effectively, tracking left-back Danilo when he drifted inside, and opening up space for the overlapping Juranovic.

Kramaric was less dangerous, and Croatia’s most memorable centre-forward contribution came from his 72nd-minute replacement, Petkovic. First, he brilliantly outwitted two defenders down the left and squared for a chance for Marcelo Brozovic, who blazed over. He then scored the crucial late equaliser in extra time, and while this owed to a major deflection, it demonstrated his ability to find space in the box when the ball is out wide. He might return to the starting XI against Argentina on Tuesday.

Ultimately, Croatia aren’t offering enough attacking threat in this competition.

In expected goal terms, they’ve posted figures of less than 1.0 in the games against Morocco, Belgium and Brazil, around 1.0 in the first 90 minutes against Japan, and only created a serious stream of chances against Canada. They desperately lack speed, and their midfielders’ ball-playing ability is primarily used as a defensive tool rather than as an attacking weapon.

And yet it’s difficult to begrudge them their success — despite this weakness, they remain a disciplined, well-organised, methodical side.

Besides, as various previous champions — France in 1998 and 2018 in particular — have demonstrated, you don’t always need a prolific striker to win a World Cup.

If Croatia can dominate possession in their next two matches and continue keeping clean sheets, they might just go one better than four years ago.

GO DEEPER

'Only Croatia can do this' — breaking down the comeback that stunned Brazil

(Photo: Hector Vivas – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57knJvcWliaXxzfJFrZmpqX2Z%2BcK%2FRqJitoZFixLC%2By51knK2gYq61wMCcomg%3D